The T-Report: Too High, Too Fast?
My target has been 1,430. We are almost there. Last time I changed my mind too early it was a costly mistake. I had been bearish coming into election with a target range of 1,375 – 1,400. Yet at 1,400 I cut the shorts and missed the move to 1,375 (and lower) and was on […]
The T-Report: You Look Great in Blue, Buy This Pink Dress
There was some chatter about the performance of fixed income ETF’s yesterday. They performed poorly at least relative to stocks and some had a late day sell-off fueling some speculation that credit wasn’t doing well. That speculation was just wrong, but highlighted some problems with existing fixed income ETF’s. They were trading at a premium […]
Afternoon T: Up, Down, and All Around
I can’t believe it’s only Wednesday. It has been a whirlwind week, in fact a whirlwind two weeks. With all that is going on, I figured I should clarify where I stand, as it’s been hectic. This note is more fun to write because I managed to do the opposite of getting whipsawed – […]
Afternoon T: Up, Down, and All Around
I can’t believe it’s only Wednesday. It has been a whirlwind week, in fact a whirlwind two weeks. With all that is going on, I figured I should clarify where I stand, as it’s been hectic. This note is more fun to write because I managed to do the opposite of getting whipsawed – I […]
The T-Report: Thank-you Washington, German Taxpayers & Apple
Getting Paid to Make Hard Things Look Easy Athletes, computer programmers, and others get paid well because they make things that are hard to do, look easy. Politicians have now mastered getting paid to make easy things seem hard. As I sent in my early morning note to clients, I assume this is mostly just […]
Fixed Income Strategy Update
In traded and Aggressive are selling 20% of HY to take that allocation back to 20% in each. We will remove the entire 5% allocation to Spanish bonds in both those. We will sell the 2% allocation to EWI in Aggressive. A risk off call on the back of what to us is disappointing Greek […]
The T-Report: Greece and Other Reasons to be Less Bullish
Greece: One Less Reason for Risk On Frankly I am surprised how well received the Greek headlines have been. I can only explain it as an example of people reading between the lines, because if you read the lines, this is far from a deal. I have appended my initial reaction sent to clients at […]
The T-Report: Quebec Welcomes Catalonia to the United Nations!
But Quebec Isn’t a Country? Exactly. The Catalonian elections are interesting and shouldn’t surprise anyone. In stressful economic times people look for alternatives. They want someone to blame (“the other guy”) and like to be told how great they themselves are. If that wasn’t the case, it is unlikely that an angry megalomaniac with a […]
Weekly Fixed Income Overview and Strategies – Chase for Yield is On
The Year End Yield Chase Closed end fixed income funds continued their bounce, high yield ETF’s had inflows, and much of what we discussed last week came true. The move the prior week was rational. We saw steep declines in closed end funds on a combination of big premiums, leveraged assets, and dividend tax confusion. […]
Fixed Income Allocation Updates
Adding 2% NLY to trading and another 2% to aggressive. Am adding 5% to High Yield allocation in each target portfolio.