The Weekly T Report: Dream the Impossible Dream?
Too Early To Dream of a Fix, but Worth Reviewing what has happened If “buy and hold” and the “carry trade” is the dumb money, it has done pretty well, even in Spain of all places. There have been opportunities to short Spain and make a lot of money, but it is worth pointing out […]
The T Report: Now What?
The Laundry Has Been Done I hated investment advice based on “least dirty shirt”. Now, here we are with DAX up more than the Nasdaq YTD, both in Euros and when converted to dollars. The IBEX index is now up some 35% or so since the July lows. Anything that was hated or viewed as […]
ECB Press Conference – First Thoughts
A Small Step for Draghi, a Giant Step for ECB The ECB’s latest plan is interesting. It doesn’t go as far as some would like, it has problems in that once again everything has to be negotiated. At the same time, it seems like they have made a momentous change in attitude. They still aren’t […]
The T Report: Complaining About Free Beer
We All Know the Type They get handed a free beer and the first thing they say is Too warm Too fizzy Too flat Doesn’t taste right out of plastic cups Don’t you have any Labatt’s? They forget the beer was free and only focus on the negative details. Well after the Draghi leak yesterday, […]
The T Report: What, Me Worry?
The Importance of the Bund Auction Markets are mixed overnight. They had steadily declined as concerns about Asia influenced markets. As the day has gone on in London, markets have bounced off the lows, as hopes of ECB action increase. There was a weak German bund auction. They only sold €3.61 billion out of a […]
The T Report: Re-Coupling Trades are Working
Re-Coupling Spanish and Italian stock markets are both up just over 1% this week already. Germany is about unchanged and the U.S. futures indicate a roughly flat opening. Re-coupling. Spanish 5 year bond yields are 45 bps better in two days and are close to levels last seen in early May (pre-JPM whale trade). Italy […]
The T Report: Tepper, QE, and “Priced In”
Not Priced In This is one of the most memorable clips in recent years on CNBC. The Tepper “Balls to the Walls” take on QE2. It was short, simple, and spot-on. He nailed it. What was interesting at the time was that his belief in how good QE2 would be wasn’t universally shared. Many, myself […]
The Weekly T Report: PIIGS Bonds, HY Bonds, Bank Bonds, and Recoupling
Spanish, Italian, and Irish 4 year Bonds This Year Don’t Ignore the Irish Comeback This chart is important for a couple of reasons. The story in Ireland doesn’t get much attention, but what a comeback. The Irish 2016 bonds started the year yielding 7.5% and are now down to 4.43%. So while we are inundated […]
The T Report: Central Banks, Solvency, Liquidity, & Budget Deficits
Central Bankers and Budget Deficits Once again, the fate of the world or at least the markets rests on the shoulder of two men. Ben and Mario hold center stage over the next few days. I believe Ben will disappoint and rather than highlighting what can be done, will take this opportunity to preach on […]
The T Report: Bernanke to Preach not Print Tomorrow
From this morning e-mail I went full “bear” yesterday afternoon right after beige book. I remain that way and remain convinced that Bernanke will spend more time chastising politicians and downplaying monetary policy. I have been told by some smart people that I’m wrong – so I could well be. I’ve also been […]