Spanish Bank Stress Tests
The Asset Quality Review and Bottom-Up Stress Test Exercise I’m sure its fairly standard, but in the preamble, the report says it relies on 3rd party reports, that haven’t been verified or audited. Probably just standard legal mumbo jumbo, but worth mentioning since it is certainly lower than the standard a private equity investor would […]
The T Report: Eurobowl Crisis Weekend XXVIII
I’ve lost count of how many crisis weekends we have faced, How many summits we have had that are about to change the nature of the problem, but we are at another one of those moments, with the added joy of bank stress test releases coming out of Spain. The Bull Case I had turned […]
The T Report: Budgets and Bailouts
Spain is Fixed! Again! Maybe Rajoy announces a new Spanish budget. Rajoy asks the ECB to enact OMT. The IMF agrees that the new budget is enough and ensure that OMT is enacted and that ESM can buy new issues while they are at it. All is good, right? Not so fast. A couple of […]
The T Report: Run, Don’t Walk
Why Can’t We Have A Correction? The very fact that virtually everyone says we can’t have a correction probably means we can. I see complacency. The VIX is low and no one cares. Performance chasing is the latest excuse for analysis on why stocks HAVE to go up. People look at a treasury curve that […]
The T Report: From European Bull to Bear
Summer 2012 in Europe I have clearly had another change in sentiment on the outlook for assets in Europe. At the height of the crisis I was an unabashed bull. The timing of this Bloomberg TV interview couldn’t have been better, but in general the bull case was based on 3 things Not doing anything […]
The T Report: I Love It When a Plan Comes Together
Bearish Over the past week, I’ve collected my thoughts, looked at the world in a few different ways and am becoming more convinced that being short is the right trade, and for long only accounts, a time to reduce risk not add risk. There are lots of moving parts out there, but I think the […]
The Weekly T Report: Huey, Dewey, and QE
Huey, Dewey, and QE What do Donald Duck’s nephews have to do with QE? Nothing, but it is hard to find anything that rhymes with QE and doesn’t rely on quoting Hamlet. But the biggest question facing every investor is Can the market go down while the Fed is engaged in QE? That is the […]
The T Report: Mañana Mañana Mañana
Full of Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing It feels so long ago that we woke up to so many stories about Europe pushing risk around (it was less than 2 weeks ago). Spain is allegedly in talks to get the bailout. ESM is on track to launch in October and Greece may get some government […]
The T Report: Price of Oranges in the USSR and Treasuries in the USA
Price of Oranges in the USSR and Treasuries in the US What was the price of oranges in the USSR? Whatever Stalin said. What is the price of treasuries in the US? Whatever Bernanke says. By and large we all accept that nothing in the Soviet Union was natural. It was all manipulated by the […]
Bond ETF’s – Don’t Ignore the Trees for the Forest of Bonds
Some Bond Specific Reasons to be Careful in HY ETF’s There are many parts of the HY market that will do well to just return coupon in the near term. I don’t want to pick on indices or ETF’s, but let’s do it. Let’s take a look at some of the top 10 holdings in […]