The T Report: Here We Go Again
So once again futures started the session lower, and bounced overnight and are sitting at near session highs. We have had close to a 1% swing in S&P futures before most Americans have started their week (including me today). I think this is another opportunity to shed some risk. I continue to believe that […]
Banks: Hedgeless Horsemen, VAR, & Bear Stearns
Mr. Dimon Wishes He Hadn’t Bought Bear Stearns and So Do I For many people, the point of no return in policy in this country was when JPM bought Bear Stearns in a hastily constructed deal, motivated as much by fear of the unknown as an rational business argument. Short dated Bear Stearns bonds were […]
The T Report: Gangnam Style and Who the U.S. Isn’t
Gangnam Style and YMCA I remember back in the early 90’s travelling through countries where many people didn’t speak English. In spite of not speaking English, they listened to American music. Dance floors would be packed with people who knew the words to songs without knowing their meaning. I found it fascinating. Fortunately for me, […]
The T Report: Greece is the Word and OMT isn’t a Word
How OSI May be the End of OMT and ESM For now we can ignore the brutal statistic of 25% unemployment. That sounds callous, and I guess it is, but that is not why Greece is going to become a key issue in the ongoing battle of European bailouts. There is growing talk of some […]
The T Report: Mythbusters on BLS, Treasuries, Apple & HY
BLS Data I don’t think the BLS is nefarious or did anything wrong with last week’s numbers. I’m frankly surprised by the disbelief many have with the numbers, though it is part of what seems to be a growing trend – frustration at manipulated markets. The household survey is flawed in its methodology. It is […]
The T Report: You Can Lead a Horse to Water, But Can’t Make it Drink
Spain Will Spain go through with the bank bailout? We Spain get OMT for the secondary market? Will ESM support Spanish new issuance? In all likelihood each of these programs will be initiated, but I see them as likely being ineffective. They will be ineffective because they won’t be implemented with vigor. They will be […]
The T Report: Writers Block – 2 Pages of It
Central Banks versus Rest of the World Day 1,038 What is there to write? The Fed has done its thing and the market is still trying to digest what QE means in the short term. The ECB has indicated what they would like to do, but so far has not actually done anything. Every day […]
The T Report: Portugal, Diffusion Indices, and QE
Portugal Portugal managed to exchange some bonds today. The government bought back some bonds due to mature in 2013 and exchanged them for bonds due to mature in 2015. This is interesting. I think it has helped risk in Europe as it is a sign that Portugal is not about to default any time soon […]
The T Report: Again, Still, More of the Same
We are seeing yet another risk rally on stories that this is the weekend Spain asks for a bailout. Let’s for a minute ignore that we had the same rally on the same stories last Thursday. Let’s ignore the growing effort in Germany to challenge OMT (unlikely to be successful but still not a positive […]
The T Report: The Fourth Quarter
A Confused Start to the Day, Month, Quarter S&P futures have already traded in an almost 1% range today. Weakness in Asia overnight, caused in part by weak data, was reversed on the European open, in part on weak data. You can’t make this stuff up, but the battle between weak data, mediocre earnings, downbeat […]