The T Report: Stirred Not Shaken
I Am Confused No, I’m not confused that the correct phrase is Shaken, Not Stirred, I’m confused by what to do with the market here. My two big targets have been hit with 1,400 on the S&P 500 now reality and IG19 is extremely close to 100. Spanish 5 year bond yields are above where […]
The T Report: The 6th Time is a Charm for Stock Futures?
Yeah, Futures are up, going to be a great day! For some reason people seem even more excited that futures are up this morning than they have the past 6 mornings. Yes, I took positions off as we approached overall target levels (1,400 on S&P and 100 on IG19) but can now reload what got […]
The T Report: Kim Kardashian and the Fed
Once you have bared it all, repeatedly, there is little novelty or excitement left. After last month’s FOMC decision when the Fed went all in, this meeting has low expectations for the market. Here is what to look for, and how I think markets will react. No Change in Size of QE The $85 billion […]
The T Report: Canaries Banned from Coalmines (Elephants Allowed)
Fresh Lows Overnight we are hitting new lows with S&P futures touching 1414, a level not seen since early September and pre OMT and QEX. Nasdaq 100 futures are even worse, hitting levels last seen in early August, right after the “whatever it takes” speech finally got some traction. Credit indices have been wider than […]
The T Report: Falling Knives, Dead CATs & Strikeless Puts
Falling Knives Europe has played a dangerous game of catching falling knives. Do nothing. Markets weaken. Have some meetings and vague plans. Markets turn more negative. Complain about speculators. Market starts to panic and economies constrict. Politicians and Central Bankers talk more. Markets swing up and down between hopes of some new solution and fears […]
The Weekly T Report: Moore’s Law Meets Murphy’s Law & Milken
Let’s Get Europe Out of the Way I would love to be able to say that Europe is fixed. It isn’t and this particular summit was particularly disappointing. They announced some vague plan to plan a bank supervisor. I still don’t understand why people really think a bank supervisor would change anything. Just think about […]
The T Report: Monster Trucks, Summits, and Gravity
Sunday, Sunday, Sunday, Monster Truck Madness….or EU Summit It is bad enough when you get a song stuck in your head, but today, I have those Monster Truck commercials stuck in my head. The deep voice, pitching the excitement that Sunday, Sunday, Sunday, Monster Truck Madness was coming to your town. Maybe the EU should […]
The T Report: Overdone?
CDS Lagging for First Time in Awhile Yesterday in particular was a huge outperformance for CDS. Spanish bonds were more than 30 bps tighter across the board. That lead to a major squeeze in all the CDS indices. Yet this morning, SNR FINS in Europe is 5 wider, MAIN is 3 wider, and even IG19 […]
The T Report: Memories of 2010
The First Real QE Day Trading Pattern Yesterday’s stock action reminded me a lot of 2010 after QE2. We saw stocks gap higher on the open, then grind higher throughout the day, with a final surge into the close. That to me was a defining pattern of the rally in 2010. Yesterday was really the […]
The T Report: Today’s Debate Brought to You by the Letter E
ESM ESM is finally up and running. It starts with €32 billion of paid-in capital. This money will be invested in short term, highly rated debt. So far it the story is they are buying EIB and KFW bonds. The ESM should now be able to borrow as much as €213 billion (paid-in capital is […]