Afternoon T Report: A Lot to Catch Up On
Quick Recap This morning’s risk off note was short and to the point. And more right than I would have guessed. When I started typing the report stock futures were higher on the day. As short as the report was, I couldn’t type fast enough, to get it out before futures had turned red. But […]
The T Report: Risk-Off
We may get a bounce because the “uncertainty” is gone. It isn’t. Fiscal cliff is uncertain. Europe is uncertain. China is uncertain. Earnings are uncertain. Some of the people saying buy the dip are the same people who said a Romney win was sure to be good for the market (which I disagree with). […]
The T Report: The 3rd Most Important Vote This Week
I Just Can’t Get Excited In theory I should be excited about the prospects of the election today, but I just can’t get worked up. I’m not sure this is even the most important vote this week in terms of the markets. Chinese and Greek voting ranks right up there. I’m not even sure this […]
The T Report: A Paucity of Change, Greece & CPDO
On Election Eve and all through the house it’s as quiet as a mouse Maybe it is just me, but the election already seems anti-climatic. After what seems like close to 3.5 years of campaigning, the election is finally upon us. Maybe it is the length of the campaign, or the after effects of hurricane […]
TFMkts Fixed Income Overview and Allocation Strategies
Pop and then Gravity The week started positively. In spite of fears related to hurricane Sandy, risk assets started the week on a positive note. Wednesday, when U.S. markets finally opened, the rally was a bit tentative, but then it gained strength on Thursday. We had remained positive that morning on risk, in a large […]
The T Report: “We finally really did it” Planet of the Apes Style
You Maniacs! You blew it up! Oh, damn you! With part of NYC under water this week, I can’t shake the image of the Statue of Liberty from the end of the Planet of the Apes. In that case, the devastation was something mankind had done to itself. In many ways, it is hard to […]
The T Report: The Visible Hand
Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” is meant to represent some form of self-regulating energy in free markets. Some invisible force that lets free markets react to conditions to produce optimal outcomes. We don’t have invisible hands. We have Ben’s hand poised over the print button. Mario’s hand ready to pick up the phone and scream buy buy buy to his […]
The T Report: 1,000 Acts of Kindness
I have grown addicted to. Twitter. I find it a useful source of information – I’m not supposed to say rumors, but those too. Having said that, if all I knew about the hurricane came from twitter I’d be curled up in my basement in a ball sobbing and lamenting the collapse of civilization. In CT, we got […]
TFMkts Fixed Income Overview
From Risk Off to Risk Neutral Until Friday of last week, we had been in a risk off stance. We had believed that the market was too optimistic about what immediate impact QE would have and that too many had over-estimated how eager Europe was to proceed with new and bigger bailouts. Those all helped […]
Weekly T Report: OMT – From OMG to MIA & Why It Drives Risk
Even A Risk on/Risk Off World Isn’t This Simple, Or Is it? This is the S&P 500 since July. We’ve had earnings, elections, open ended QE, attacks on embassies, doubts about the viability of social media as a business, weak economic data out of China, bouts of strength with U.S. economic data, budgets, and stress […]