What the TF? New Greek Govt Looks at Old Govt’s Debt Deal
In a world full of unintended consequences (where unintended invariably means bad) the profile of the Greece’s debt is interesting. Greece currently has €220 billion of debt outstanding. That will grow as part of the “bail-out” but since the bank recapitalization isn’t done, and other money has been held back, the amount is smaller […]
The T Report: Europe Wasn’t Destroyed in a Day
Just like Rome wasn’t built in a day, the Eurozone won’t be destroyed in a day, but it is on a path that leads to eventual dismantling. What day will historians choose to pick as the day that the Euro died? The day Greece or someone else first leaves the Euro The elections of […]
The Weekly T Report: The Paucity of Growth
By Monday there will have been a real shift in the political landscape in Europe In Greece, there is a real backlash against the alleged bailout. The bailout was never about Greece. In the end, with PSI, it wasn’t even about the banks. It is some convoluted concoction brought about by the arrogance of […]
TFMkts Best Ideas: Why shorting Spanish and Italian Bonds is the Right Trade
I continue to believe that longer dated Spanish and Italian bonds are poised for a significant sell-off. At this stage everyone knows the problems the two countries are facing. Spain’s economy seems to be doing worse than Italy, but Italy has a heavier debt burden. Over the past few weeks, more and more investors […]
The T Report: ECB, NFP, Don’t Hold Your Breath Waiting for Rotation into Equities
Jobless claims better than expected and back to levels where we had been earlier this year (after they were revised upwards). This data has been so consistently revised higher, that the market is taking it with a grain of salt. Spanish and Italian bonds are holding onto to most of their earlier gains on […]
The T Report: Draghi Straits – Money For Nothing
Economic data in Europe brought us back to our typical reality. The economic conditions are getting worse, unemployment is breaking records, and the stocks and banks of the periphery are in trouble again. The main support for the market is complete faith that Draghi and ECB will unveil some new plan that will make […]
The T Report: May Fixed Income “Core” Allocation and April Performance Update
This is the “core” fixed income allocation. The goal of the “core” portfolio is to provide monthly updates, with some intermittent changes as market conditions warrant. The allocations are intended to provide good income opportunities, with the best risk/reward profile and the ability to take advantage of major market opportunities when they occur. We […]
The T Report: Austerity, Spending & the Black Market in the Room
A dull morning with the Euro markets shut down. Stock futures have meandered throughout the overnight session, trading up and down, but in a narrow range. We get the ISM data and vehicles sales today. It would be surprising if ISM didn’t disappoint, which means the market has already priced in a print lower […]