The Weekly Update – NFP and 50 DMA For S&P
In a very thin market, the S&P futures came very close to hitting their 50 DMA on Friday. The S&P futures went from a high of 1,418 on Monday, to trade as low as 1,372 on Friday. A 46 point swing is healthy correction at the very least, if not an ominous warning sign of […]
The T Report: ETF Overload
On this semi-holiday, there is not much to say about the markets. NFP was a disappointment. Those of us who have been arguing that the jobs data in January and February was inflated by the great weather and that the seasonal adjustments may have overstated the job recovery are feeling vindicated today. Job growth is […]
The T Report: Two Types of Credit Losses
There are signs that the credit situation in Europe is deteriorating. Bond yields and spreads are worse across the board once again. Of some concern is that Italy is underperforming Spain a bit today, in CDS, the 5yr, and 10yr points. The “firewalls” can’t really handle Spain, but there is nothing to do if Italy […]
TFMkts Best Ideas – Official Kick-off
As we continue to refine our distribution methodology, we are changing the form of content to make it easier for people to use. The T report will be a daily summary of what has gone, what to watch out for, thoughts on the market and trading strategies. There will be growing focus on all forms […]
Synthetic CDO’s – When Risky Isn’t Risky – Or Free Equity
Synthetic CDO ‘First Loss’ tranche safer than ‘Second Loss’ Tranche In the past few weeks there has been some more noise from regulators and the rumor mill related to synthetic CDO’s. It hasn’t hit the frenzy surrounding the Abacus deal last year, but the questions are starting to pop up again. Who was long what? […]
The T Report: “Rate” Products and “Credit” Products
Clearly Spain is the story of the day. The auction was weak in every possible way. They sold less than the maximum, at yields worse than last time, and with much lower bid to cover ratios. That accelerated the sell-off that was started after the Fed came out with a less dovish statement than the […]
The T Report: Are Stocks Giffen Goods?
So when will retail investors start buying stocks? One of the final legs propping up this rally is the belief that retail investors will finally pile into stocks. There is hope that all this “money on the sidelines” will find its way into the stock market. The S&P at 1,350 was supposed to do the […]
Afternoon T: Strong Start to the Quarter
A little pre-open jitters, a bit shaky on the open and then into the Construction Spending and ISM data, and then off to the races. Nearly everything is up or better today, in fact you know it is a strong day when market even natural gas can manage a gain. So the rally today is […]
The T Report: Dueling PMI’s and Jobs in Europe
Chinese PMI has given people the chance to show just how bullish or bearish they are, and their willingness to spin the data to suit their view. The bulls point to the “official” data and say the bounce is real and holidays had a bigger impact than people realized. The bears (including me) find the […]
€300 Billion of “Firewall” Money up in Smoke
Last week’s firewall headlines devolved into a “mine is bigger than yours” argument, as official headlines touted the highest possible number, and any reasonable analysis showed that the available money had only increased from €300 billion to €500 billion. Far less than the official headlines and any analysis of how the EU cobbles together €500 […]