NFP – What’s The “Whisper” Number?
Great weather and the seasonal adjustments should boost what could already be a decent number. There have been some indications that hiring has slowed down from January, but with this being a February number it might not reflect that. The market really feels like it has bet on a big number, so it may take […]
Greek Creditors Don’t Get The Courtesy Of A Reach-Around
Only in Greece, can you wipe out €100 billion of debt, and have the new debt that replaces it trade at 20% of face value. So 85.8% of Greek law bonds “participated”. The government intends to use the Collective Action Clause to force the holdouts to participate. It is unclear if the government has actually […]
(AP) Greece: High Participation In Bond Swap
So 86% participation in Greek bond laws. Plans to use CAC on Greek law bonds. Unclear if already using the CAC or not. ISDA meeting later. Won’t be a Credit Event until CAC is used. English law bond deadline extended. +——————————————————————————+ Greece: High Participation in Bond Swap 2012-03-09 06:25:50.198 GMT Athens, Greece (AP) — […]
The Law Of Large Numbers And EU Insanity
Rumors that PSI is above 90 % and that Greece won’t use CAC. With 207 billion Euro out of affected debt, even 10% is almost 21 billion. The PSI package seems worth somewhere between 20 and 25 cents on the dollar. So paying these holdouts at par as they come due, costs Greece about 1.5 […]
(BN) Papademos Says Expects Maximum Participation in Greek Debt Swap
I’m not sure why 100% isn’t maximum possible, but math and Greek politicians don’t seem to go well together. I expect a number between 75% and 98%. I expect every bank and most regulated entities to vote for it – how many Greek bonds are held by Europe’s bad banks and bailed out banks? My […]
ECB: 8 March 2012 – Eligibility Of Bonds Issued Or Guarantee
ECB: 8 March 2012 – Eligibility of bonds issued or guaranteed by the greek government in Eurosystem credit operations Ok, I read the English press release and am left wishing they had it in Italian or something because it would make as much sense. All I can guess is this is a way around […]
Main And IG17 Not Doing As Well As Equities…
Main was 4 tighter at one point but is only 1 3/4 tighter now. IG17 is only 1 tighter – which seems light given where futures are. HY17 is doing better, the slippage in these indices may be a sign that stocks are over enthusiastic again. I think we will see lower levels than now […]
Manic Depressive Markets Are Back
What a difference 24 hours makes, or 48 for that matter. After an almost 2% decline on Tuesday on virtually no news, the market looks set to get all that back and more – all since about 10:30 yesterday – also on no real news. PSI results continue to come in. It looks like it […]
Ultimate Carry Trades – AIG, MF Global, And LTRO
We know how AIG and MF ended, as of yet we don’t know how LTRO will end. AIG was the ultimate carry trade. They sold massive amounts of CDS for a very small spread. They had no funding cost, no collateral requirements (initially), and no mark to market risk for their own P&L. The year […]
Markets Rallying On QE And PSI
Looks like straight QE may be off the table, but the Fed is working on other ways to pump money into longer dated bonds and mortgages. For now market is positive. This is weak compared to real QE though purchases of mortgages would be more interesting as tries to more directly to help the housing […]