Just The Facts, Ma’am.
Well, we are finally getting close to getting some actual facts. The 9 page IMF report has been leaked. It doesn’t show much “sustainability” and that is without taking a closer look at the assumptions. That report talks about a 95% PSI participation rate on an “updated pool”. While we haven’t seen any details on […]
It’s 3am in Brussels, do you know where your Fin Min is?
If past performance is any indication of future returns, they are now desperately cobbling together something that sounds good, but has enough conditions and things to iron out, that they can have another summit next week. Shorting Belgium catering companies was a bad idea.
Why Are We Waiting? Why Are We Waiting? Oh Why, Why, Why?
So the PSI negotiators are in with their bosses, discussing further haircuts. Bank equity holders haven’t realized it, but the banks are now being run by the Troika. When you rely on them for all your money, for supporting your positions, and being a backstop for capital, you have little choice but to listen to […]
Pari Passu and Bouillabaisse
I have always thought that “pari passu” and bouillabaisse a couple of the coolest things to say, but with the latest plan by the ECB to exchange their Greek bonds for new bonds only they would hold it is worth taking a closer look at “pari passu”. This is not meant to be in any […]
The Lunacy Of It All
Greece is trying to cut 325 million more from their budget to appease the troika to get money. There is a real chance the Troika gives Greece money so it can pay 16 billion of principal and interest on March 20th. Read these lines over and over and let me know if it doesn’t make […]
(BN) ECB Greek Plan May Hurt Bondholders While Triggering Debt Swaps
A good summary. Here is how is see it playing out and an explanation of what the ECB has done. If there was a bond with a billion outstanding and the ECB held 200 million and private investors held 800 million it would make the PSI awkward. It would be offered to everyone, but the […]
European Sovereign Bond Protection Facility Launched, EFSF Says
Finally. Will be interesting to see if this really works. I find it hard to get excited about first loss protection from a bunch of countries that dont want to lose money and don’t think they can. Maybe they will make a law that retroactively makes payments from EFSF illegal? +——————————————————————————+ BFW 02/17 […]
DOW JONES REPORTS THE ECB GREEK BOND SWAP IS NOW DONE
From Mark Grant at Southwest Securities. THIS MEANS THAT EACH AND EVERY EUROPEAN BOND THAT YOU OWN IS NOW SUBORDINATED TO THE ECB AND THE EUROPEAN UNION. IF THEY CAN SWAP THEIR BONDS FOR NEW BONDS WITH DIFFERENT TERMS, NO CAC CLAUSE IN THIS CASE, THEN THEY CAN SWAP THEIR BONDS FOR ANY TERMS […]
Greek Bailout Or Deliverance?
Bailout somehow seems too nice of a word. It implies working together, giving a helping hand, making a real effort to help someone out. As I read the headlines coming out of Greece for the past 2 weeks, all I can think of is, how do you say “squeal like a pig” in German. The […]
Hearing That The ECB Swap Is Done…
There is supposedly a headline out there that the ECB swap is done. That is not surprising. All they are doing is taking existing bonds, and changing them so they have new cusips and documentation that explicitly states they cannot be “retroactively” CAC’d. This isn’t part of PSI or anything exciting. It is a legal […]