Greece, Portugal, And LTRO
While we wait to see what happens with the Greek debt negotiations, here is a useful update from Bloomberg. Greek Negotiations Update <http://bloom.bg/xcZPA0> There are a couple of things about the article I find most useful. The first is that they seem less afraid of triggering a Credit Event and some even think it could […]
Bad AAPL, Good Fedo
In spite of earnings that crushed it for Apple, broader indices struggled to show much strength overnight and slid on the back of some weak earnings out of Europe and growing concerns that few people at the Greek PSI negotiating table have a clue. The comments coming out of the ECB seem more absurd than […]
Daily Credit ETF and Index Summary (12.01.25) – Waiting For The Fed
Finally back from vacation and getting this daily piece together again. Credit has performed very well over the past week, but all the credit indices are starting to (or continue to trade very rich). IG17 is 7 bps rich, and HYG is trading more than 1% above NAV. LQD is also close to 1% above […]
Everything You Wanted to Know About Credit Trading, But Were Afraid to Ask
Markets have become far less volatile than last year, but many investors remain focused on the Credit Markets for signs and cues as to the next move. With so many people looking to moves in credit markets and trying to determine how successful an auction has been, I thought it would make sense to go […]
Hmmmm…CDX Indices
CDX indices have been closing at 4 pm sharp, but today every index trader seems to have stuck around for Apple and made markets that were tighter than the close. Since Apple has I-Zero debt outstanding, that strikes me as particularly peculiar and smells like the street has used whatever limited power to position management […]
The Fed Should Hire A Mechanic
The “Transmission Mechanism” Is Broken. As the Fed debates what form of QE to launch on the world and whatever new communication strategies they are going to employ, maybe they should sit back and figure out why their policies seem to be doing so little. The Fed is clearly trying to stimulate the economy. As […]
When “Sneaky” Long Isn’t So Sneaky…
I’m back from the snow and am wondering where all the bears went? I cannot find more than one person willing to be outright bearish. What is particularly strange is that the reasons most people are bullish seem to have little, if anything to do with fundamentals – either macro or micro. The reason for […]
The ESM / EFSF Bluff
Holding 10, Queen, not suited, small stack, is it time go all in? Both EFSF and ESM rely primarily on guarantees which we know Most European politician think is as valuable as toilet paper, so why not provide more? The ESM does have some paid in capital, but the plan is for minimal paid in […]
Why Are Greek Credit Event Swaps Still In The Mid 60’S?
As we wait for more IIF announcements about the Greek Private Sector Involvement (PSI), Greek CDS remains bid above 60 points up front. For a contract that is about to be “worthless”, this seems to have a lot of value. Why would Greek CDS still be so well bid? One answer is stubbornness and stupidity. Maybe the CDS […]
LTRO Version 0.2
LTRO version 1.0 continues to capture the markets attention. It was a reason to rally, then fade, now back to an excuse to rally. My contention all along has been that LTRO was good for banks. It dramatically reduced the liquidity risk for banks. It did nothing for the solvency of banks or sovereigns, and […]