My target has been 1,430. We are almost there.
Last time I changed my mind too early it was a costly mistake. I had been bearish coming into election with a target range of 1,375 – 1,400. Yet at 1,400 I cut the shorts and missed the move to 1,375 (and lower) and was on the wrong side of some of that move.
Because of that, I’m nervous about changing my mind here. 1,430 was the target and we aren’t there yet. I still think there is a “perfect storm” scenario of EU, Cliff, and China that pushes us to new highs and possibly even 1,500.
But I’m nervous about Europe. The plan to have s deal is being treated like a deal. It isn’t. Grumbling and noise about the deal seem to be ignored, along with the focus of debt to GDP in 2020 taking on far too much time and attention, missing the bigger picture.
Apple scares me here. I don’t see a big decline but it seems to be struggling – both the stock and the products seem to have hit a wall.
We can’t rally much more without Apple.
I am growing concerned that the politicians may be able to say compromise, possibly even spell it, but have forgotten how to do it.
I am not super bearish here but I can’t justify being fully long here. Profit taking time.
Credit should outperform, and I still like that, but here too, taking some chips off the table makes sense.
I will regret this if stocks plow through to 1,450 but right now too much good is priced in.