TFMkt Best Ideas Update and Summary

Posted by on Apr 10, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Getting very bearish now with several new trades:

Short Italy via CDS. Buy Italian CDS at 440. Market seems very fragile, particularly in bonds, but if Spanish 10 year yields can’t hold 6% look for a sell-off across the board.

Short IG18 at 102.75. Buy protection on IG18. The market traded well earlier today, but looks like shorts have taken some profits and signs that real money might have to do some hedging (or selling of bonds soon).

Short NDA (QQQ) at 2734. Time to go short AAPL. If the market is as weak as I think, we may see some funds selling their winners, and there is no winner like AAPL.

Current Trades Directional Trades

Short S&P 500 (ES), Short Nasdaq 100 (NDA/QQQ)

Short IG18

Short Italy via CDS

Short Spanish 10 year bonds

Long Greek 2023 PSI bonds

Long HYG

Current Trades “Basis” Trades

Short IG9 10 year and Long IG18 5 year

Long HY17 and short HYG

Long Italian 5 year bonds, Short Spanish 5 year bonds


Obviously have gone very bearish right now. Am watching the market closely, and will look for longs, profit taking opportunities, or if necessary some stops losses.