The T Report: Central Banks, Growth, and Waiting for Data
The Weekly Report pretty much covers the big issue of the week. Will Central Banks and governments do something to help the market? It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they won’t do anything that really helps the economies, but there is hope that they will help the markets. Growth has become the […]
What the TF? Give Austerity a Chance. Spending for Growth Already Failed.
The markets may decide to play along with the renewed talk of growth and the death of austerity, but it is shocking how quickly writers and the media have latched on to the idea that growth will somehow save us and that the entire problem is the fault of austerity. Although it seems like it […]
The Weekly T Report: BJ and the Bear
CB’s, CB’s, CB’s, everywhere you look people are writing or talking about central banks. The last time CB’s were this omnipresent in America, BJ and the Bear was on TV, Convoy was the movie, people had cool “handles” and said think like roger that, and 10-4 big buddy. Now it’s twitter “handles”, CYA’s and […]
The T Report: GDP Better Be Good and Redefining “Successful” Auctions
The market has continued its overnight rebound, at least in part on expectations that GDP will hit 3%. I could see that happening quite easily. There was enough good data at the start of the year that the consensus estimate of 2.5% seems slow. The same group that complains about how Case-Shiller is backwards […]
What the TF? When did Austerity Become a 4 Letter Word?
Suddenly, everywhere you look, “austerity” has become a 4 letter word. Clearly it wasn’t excessive spending that caused too much debt. Surely we didn’t hit a financial crisis in spite of excessive spending, nope, it is all the fault of austerity. In the rush to avoid supporting anything that could be viewed as “austerity” […]
The T Report: The Fed Clarifies and the Market Yawns
I think we all know now what the Fed is thinking. Ben is happy to add more liquidity to the system but is constrained by a group that needs to see bad data before they can support him. I think it is pretty straightforward on the economic data front. Bad data, particularly in jobs and […]
What the TF? The SEC, NRSRO, Free Speech, and Lawsuits
So Egan-Jones is being sued by the SEC. The primary reason is that they allegedly overstated their experience in rating government bonds and ABS. It also looks like twice they rated companies that employees owned stock in. I certainly disagreed with Egan-Jones on their assessment of JEF, and in that case I turned out […]
The T Report: AAPL-on, but will Ben drink the Calvados?
As far as I can tell AAPL is driving everything. It’s no longer risk-on/risk-off, for the entire week, it has been AAPL-on/AAPL-off. As a result of AAPL earnings, stocks around the globe are reacting positively. Spanish 10 year bonds dipped below 5.70% at one time today, and CDS was 25 bps tighter, all the way […]
The T Report – The Day Austerity Died
Austerity is dead! Long live Spending! Futures are up, Italian and Spanish bonds are up, CDS spreads on them are at least 10 bps tighter, and MAIN is 3 bps tighter on the day (though I have this feeling I better type fast as we are starting to fade off the best levels). Lots of […]
More reasons to be worried about Spanish and Italian Bonds
I don’t normally follow charts closely, but the last time an ex-colleague of mine, Chico Khan-Gandapur sent out an interesting chart on European debt, it worked out. This one also points to risk of a breakout in Italian yields. It is flirting with the extended trend-line in white, and an Inverse head and shoulders pattern […]