Spanish bond yields ready to breakout higher?

Posted by on Mar 21, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments


I don’t follow charts that much, but a lot of Chico’s chart based calls have been correct and this one is intriguing as he points out that the yields are potentially breaking out of a ceiling.

A lot of people are wondering why Spain is suddenly a focus?  It has been drifting for almost 2 weeks but has suddenly moved to the foreground.

Thoughts on this:

CDS was never as strong as bonds, and those we caught up in LTRO euphoria and potential for ECB purchases, so now that people are realizing LTRO is collateralized and banks have virtually no risk appetite for bonds with maturities greater than the LTRO maturity, speculators are getting out of long positions (if not yet shorting).

Spain has been flippant in their refusal to stick to tight budget deficit targets.

PSI went so well in Greece, why won’t the politicians try it in Portugal, and possibly even Spain or Italy?

More people are starting to look at how weak the caja’s are, the municipalities, and the banks, and are starting to get nervous by all the cross guaranteed debt, and even the ponzi bonds that are created specifically to allow banks to use government guarantees to feed at the ECB trough are making some investors nervous.

This move may yet stop, and I’m sure the ECB is thinking about wading in, and for me, yields need to get well above 5.5% before I get more concerned, but the acceleration today in the move is concerning.