Rumors that PSI is above 90 % and that Greece won’t use CAC. With 207 billion Euro out of affected debt, even 10% is almost 21 billion. The PSI package seems worth somewhere between 20 and 25 cents on the dollar. So paying these holdouts at par as they come due, costs Greece about 1.5 billion euros for every 1% of holdouts. Insane when they argued and argued and argued and argued over 325 million in additional cuts. Could happen but insane. They could default as payments become due, but that is sloppy and cross default language could kick in, so the best move is to CAC no matter what and deal with the CDS Credit Event.
If there was ever a reason hedge funds earn 2 and 20 and banks trade at low multiples – just look at the list of who owned Greek bonds and who agreed to PSI.