TF Market Advisors Fixed Income Allocation – Day 1 of Q2
We are at a critical juncture in the fixed income markets. We believe the answer to three key questions will become clear over the coming months, so we will remain heavily in “cash” over the near term in order to take advantage of opportunities that occur as we get clarity. In all of our analysis, […]
From Enron to Sino Forest – Same Old Song
Enron –> Worldcom –> Adelphia –> Lehman –> MF Global –> Greece –> Sino Forest –> ???? I would rank these as some of the more notorious bankruptcies. These weren’t normal course of business bankruptcies. These were dark and deviant. They have many similarities. Opaque and convoluted accounting and finances are common to them all. […]
The T Report: The Further Away From Equities The Less Excited You Are
Yesterday’s reversal in stocks was quite amazing. Not only was it large, but it came later in the day than usual as stocks as continued to test their “Europe went home” price and it was hard to figure out what rumor actually was the catalyst for the turnaround. The “credit” ETF’s followed nicely, and HYG […]
Bailout Availability goes from €300 billion to €500 billion, kind of, maybe
The EFSF has committed €200 billion. Depending on how you viewed EFSF, the maximum was €440 billion of funding at the AAA level (which it still has from Moody’s and Fitch). It could have been as much as €500 billion if it wasn’t focused on that maximum rating. So how did we get a headline […]
The T Report: Weak Data and European Debt Concerns
The data this morning was weak. Jobless claims looked bad. Expectations of 350k and an actual print of 359k. Some headlines read that the number was an improvement from last week, but only because last week’s data was revised up by 16k. Not horrible numbers, but so much hope has been placed on an improving […]
Window Dressing – You may be naked in front of that window
I have heard so much about “quarter end” window dressing, and have to admit I never understood the theory. It sounds like managers who weren’t fully invested in a good quarter are supposed to buy stocks so they can show they were fully invested? Which would you rather send to your clients: Dear investor, we […]
Austerity – Mais, non. Spending – Nein. PSI – Tal Vez?
Austerity hasn’t worked for countries. So far the austerity path has made situations worse, rather than better. Without stimulus, economies have seen their problems compound. So now virtually everyone is against the idea that austerity is helpful. That takes us back to spending. Maybe it’s just me, but spending is what got us into this […]
EU – EFSF & ESM – A whole lot of nothing
A quick look at the headlines: €200 billion already committed. So the EFSF has already committed €200 billion. So far I only see €63 billion of debt issued by the EFSF, so they have at least another €137 billion to fund. The bulk of their issuance so far is back to back with a they […]
Spain, A Slightly Bigger Kick
Yesterday, we took a quick look at Italian bond issuance since October of last year. Today it is Spain’s turn. I think they have actually done a better job. While the weighted average maturity of new Italian debt was only until August 2014, Spanish issuance has had an average weighted maturity of July 2015, almost […]
The T Report: Is Needing EU help a good thing? I really cannot remember.
Markets are up a little this morning, basically getting back the late day fade. S&P Futures up 4. IG18 is ¾ of a bp tighter. In Europe, bonds in Spain and Italy are better after an initial round of weakness. As far as I can tell, they both bounced on rumors that the EU was […]