Looking For An Upside Surprise To The Home Sales Number

Posted by on Feb 22, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

I’m looking for an upside surprise to the home sales number. According to Bloomberg the average estimate is for 4.66M.  That seems low.  It is barely above last year’s number, and since half the northeast was locked indoors for part of the month, I find it hard to believe that the seasonal adjustment won’t have a much bigger impact.  Also, each month has been better than the same month the prior year for the last few months.  Another reason I would look to upside surprise.  And finally, with a lot of other January data coming in pretty strong, this number should too, unless you believe that people with new jobs were too busy to look for new homes?  I think a lot of this will smooth over time and the spring will be relatively disappointing, but may see a pop in the markets on this release.

Source: Bloomberg