Deja View

Posted by on Feb 3, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

It seems like last Friday we were waiting for details of the latest Greek plan – PSI and Troika.  We are still waiting.  Details are starting to come out.  We should know what the bonds investors are expected to exchange into will look like.  The ECB sounds like it may use the interest they have earned on SMP to reduce the amount Greece has to pay back.

Since January 26th, the S&P 500 is up 0.5% (it feels like a lot more than that given all the hype this week)

The Euro is up about the same.

It might be shocking to some, but HYG is actually down over the week.

Main is a solid 10 bps tighter.

UNG (a Nat Gas ETF) is down 3.7% but that doesn’t begin to do justice to the volatility that commodity has had.  What a wild ride, almost every day.

China has been granted “soft” landing status based on a 50.1 print of PMI?  (this story is not over).

The US data has been okay, it has supported the growth crowd, but on the whole it hasn’t been particularly impressive.

The Jobs data gives us an additional twist to today’s Euro watching.  How many of the courier jobs will disappear?  My guess is the data will be okay, but nothing special, just like the rest of the data.  The courier jobs are interesting, not just from what happens this month, but will they come back next year?  Amazon has been beaten up over the Kindle, but one of the benefits of the Kindle is that Amazon doesn’t have to deliver e-books.  I think we will all forget that by next December when everyone’s payroll estimate will include a bump for couriers, but maybe we won’t.

Anyways, we will see what happens, but the market seems to have priced in a lot of good things (I almost forgot that LTRO2 is coming), and seems to be struggling to make or hold big gains.  I’m not sure whether it is a good sign that intraday volatility is making a comeback, but I enjoy it.  We may see some trading like last Friday where the market tries to go up in anticipation of next week’s Greek deal, but I think that won’t hold as we’ve already had that run up.