No Shoes, No Shirt, And I Still Get Service

Posted by on Feb 2, 2012 in Uncategorized | No Comments

In the case of LMFAO I get it, they’re sexy and they know it, but what about Greece?

Why is Greece still getting service? Is it like the homeless person who wanders into the nice restaurant and the owner of the establishment offers some coffee and desert to go, in the hopes that he will leave without making a scene?

We continue to wait for PSI and Troika announcements.  What is the best case?

150-200 billion of SENIOR debt. There is no pretending the ECB and troika debt is not senior, so somewhere between 50 and 80% of GDP will be senior debt.  It is hard to tell the exact amount since it seems like 10-15 billion of missing debt is found between each inspection and who really knows what the GDP is.

90 billion of debt will be forgiven and banks will be sitting on 90 billion face of debt that is also unlikely to be paid in full.

20 billion of debt doesn’t participate and either it gets paid in full or Greece fails to pay it – triggering CDS, cross default covenants, and whatever mystique that “it’s only a haircut, not a default” was supposed to create.

At least a Portuguese haircut is likely to be more stylish. How politicians think Portugal doesn’t go Greek if they don’t just gift money is beyond me.