More Summit Headlines, More Rallies On The Same Story

Posted by on Oct 20, 2011 in Uncategorized | No Comments

Summit going ahead as planned (we already bought the plane tickets and the rooms are booked, and I told the spouse they could come).

Follow up summit would be before next weekend (ummmm, the Summit may last a day or two longer than planned, unless we can figure out some other cool location to host a follow-up one – imagine the frequent flyer points).

I think it should be clear to everyone, that for the past several months no one has been working on details.  No detailed plans were ever leaked to reporters because there were no details.  No one thought to assign a couple of grunts with a slide-rule the task of figuring out how plans would work, and what the possible consequences were.  Last week, some people with computers started to model up the strategies.  They worked with lawyers to make sure they were legal.  Guess what?  There are problems with each and every strategy.  Ignoring the legal implications of any, there are the potential dire consequences if some of the plans embarked on fail.  And they will fail long before the maturity of any guarantees expire.

In the meantime I do think the mock pitch of EFSF as a Hedge Fund is sadly what is being sold.  Here at 1210, I just don’t see the need to be long.  Success is built-in, and every one of these headline induced rallies sucks in more longs, and takes out more shorts.  Remember the “Debt Ceiling” window?  That Monday rally lasted all of about 15 minutes.  Even if the EFSF delivers, I doubt how much upside is left.

As much as we may laugh at the politicians, they must be getting a kick out of watching the same rumour move stocks over and over.  Effectively the first time the rumour came out the SPX was about 1080.  Now the same rumor still moves the market and we are at 1210.  They must be laughing at the market, and deep down realize why the market needs to be bailed out, because we desperate to buy on anything, and reluctant to sell ever.  More and more people are sending around the Lucy and Charlie Brown cartoon.  I can understand why.